The restaurant experience isn’t just about great service and ambiance—it’s deeply tied to ingredient sourcing and food costs. With new U.S. tariffs on the horizon, many restaurant operators are bracing for change. These policies, which will affect a wide range of imported goods, could ripple across the food and beverage industry in the form of higher prices, tighter margins, and evolving menus. Here’s a breakdown of what’s likely to come:

1. Rising Ingredient Costs

Tariffs on imported staples like seafood, wine, coffee, cheese, olive oil, and produce can increase food costs for restaurants that rely on these ingredients. Even domestically produced foods could become more expensive if farmers and food producers face higher costs from tariffs on materials like steel, fertilizer, or agricultural machinery.

2. Higher Menu Prices

To offset rising costs, restaurants may raise menu prices—especially for dishes that rely heavily on imported goods. Guests might notice higher tabs on items like sushi, pasta dishes, charcuterie boards, and wine pairings.

3. Supplier and Menu Shifts

Some restaurants may respond by sourcing more ingredients domestically. While this can help manage expenses, it may also change the taste or quality of certain menu items. Others might adapt by streamlining their offerings or removing high-cost ingredients altogether. Seasonal or rotating menus may become more common as operators navigate fluctuating costs.

4. Beverage Costs on the Rise

Imported wines, spirits, and specialty coffees are very sensitive to tariffs. Cocktail menus, wine lists, and even upscale coffee shops could all see price jumps or feature a tighter selection.

5. Pressure on Small Operators

Small and independent restaurants, which often operate on razor-thin profit margins, are especially vulnerable. Increased costs may lead some to reduce hours, scale back staffing, or make other cuts in order to stay afloat—decisions that can impact both staff and customer experience.

Here’s how specific items are affected:

• Coffee: Tariffs on coffee imports from key suppliers like Vietnam (46%) and Costa Rica (10%) are pushing up bean prices. This will likely result in higher costs for coffee-based beverages in restaurants and cafes (The U.S. Sun).
• Seafood: Imports from Vietnam and Thailand—especially shrimp and other seafood—are now subject to high tariffs, driving up costs for seafood-focused menus (eFulfillment Service).
• Wine and Spirits: European wines, beers, and spirits face a 20% tariff, and there have been threats of tariffs up to 200% on EU wines and champagne, significantly raising costs for establishments that rely on imported alcoholic beverages (Yahoo Finance).
• Cheese and Dairy: Imported cheeses—particularly from Europe—are now subject to increased tariffs, impacting restaurants that feature cheese-heavy dishes or charcuterie boards.
• Olive Oil and Specialty Foods: Tariffs on European goods also apply to key ingredients like olive oil and chocolate, raising costs for restaurants that depend on these imported flavor staples.

These tariffs contribute to an average effective U.S. tariff rate of 22.5%, the highest since 1909, leading to increased prices across various sectors, including the food and beverage industry (Budget Lab at Yale).

In summary, enacting these tariffs will likely lead to higher prices for imported food and beverage items. As a result, restaurants may need to adjust their pricing strategies or modify their menus to mitigate the financial impact.

Goliath Consulting Group is a restaurant consultancy group based in Atlanta, Georgia. To learn more about our services including menu development, business strategy, marketing, and restaurant operations, contact us at http://www.goliathconsulting.com or email us at getresults@goliathconsulting.com