The global livestock and poultry markets are set for significant shifts in 2025. Chicken meat exports are projected to soar, while the beef and pork sectors face mixed challenges. This analysis is informed by data from the United States Department of Agriculture’s report Livestock and Poultry: World Markets and Trade. Here’s a detailed look at what lies ahead:

Chicken Meat: A Bright Spot in Global Trade

Global chicken meat exports are forecast to rise by 2% in 2025, reaching a record 13.8 million tons. This surge underscores the growing dominance of chicken meat as a staple protein in international trade, as highlighted in the USDA report.

Brazil’s Continued Leadership

Brazil stands at the forefront of this growth, leveraging its disease-free production, competitive costs, and export-oriented strategies. Key factors driving Brazil’s success include:

• Disease-Free Status: Absence of Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (HPAI) outbreaks in commercial operations.
• Cost Competitiveness: Lower feed and labor costs enhance affordability.
• Product Diversity: Tailored offerings to meet varied market preferences, including specific slaughter requirements and product formats.

Other Major Exporters

Thailand and the United States also contribute to the sector’s expansion. Thailand’s cooked chicken exports to the EU, Japan, and the UK continue to grow, while U.S. exports face a modest 1% rise due to robust domestic demand and increasing global competition.

Beef and Veal: Production Challenges Persist

Global beef production is expected to decline by 1% to 60.9 million tons, as reductions in Brazil, the EU, and the United States overshadow gains in Argentina, Australia, India, and Mexico.

Trade Stability

While production wanes, beef exports are forecast to hold steady at 12.9 million tons. Increases from Australia, Argentina, and India offset declines in the U.S., Canada, and the EU. However, U.S. exports face a steep 12% drop due to tighter domestic supplies and rising competition from Australian producers in key Asian markets.

Pork: Growth Amidst Regional Declines

The global pork market presents a mixed picture. Production is projected to dip by 1% to 115.1 million tons, driven by reductions in China and the EU. However, exports are set to rise by 1%, reaching 10.4 million tons.

U.S. and Canadian Leadership

The U.S. and Canada are poised to drive export growth, leveraging competitive pricing and strong demand in Mexico, South Korea, and Australia. Meanwhile, the EU faces challenges from African Swine Fever (ASF) restrictions and dwindling supplies.

Key Drivers of Market Dynamics

Several overarching factors, as detailed in the USDA report, shape these trends:

• Disease Status: Maintaining disease-free production is a critical competitive advantage, as seen in Brazil and Thailand’s success.
• Cost Efficiency: Countries like Brazil benefit from low feed and labor costs, while higher costs constrain growth in the U.S. and EU.
• Market Preferences: Adapting products to meet specific regional requirements—such as religious slaughter standards or feed origins—is vital for expanding market share.

The Road Ahead

The global protein market is shifting, with chicken meat emerging as a leader due to high demand and efficient production. Meanwhile, the beef and pork sectors face headwinds but hold pockets of opportunity, particularly in export-driven markets.

The coming year will test producers’ adaptability and resilience. They must navigate shifting consumer preferences, cost pressures, and disease challenges. The USDA report Livestock and Poultry: World Markets and Trade provides a comprehensive outlook on these shifting dynamics.

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